For the latest results, please visit the MRC Biostatistics Unit website.

Summary

Real-time tracking of a pandemic, as data accumulate over time, is an essential component of a public health response to a new outbreak. This document reports the work of a joint Public Health England (PHE)—University of Cambridge modelling group to nowcast and forecast COVID-19 infections and deaths, together with estimation of relevant epidemiological quantities for England (by NHS region) and Scotland. These estimates have provided the bases of forecasts supplied to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M) and to regional PHE teams.

Data Sources

We have been using data from the PHE-generated line-listing, as published on 10 May. This consists of a combination of deaths notified to:

This covers all deaths where the fatality had a confirmed positive test. Deaths which have COVID-19 on the death certificate are included in ONS figures but not here; we are looking into their inclusion.

We have separately analysed the data by:

Key values

Current R

Value of \(R_e\), the average number of secondary infections due to a typical infection today.

Number of infections

Attack rate

The percentage of a given group that has been infected.

By region

By age

IFR

Change in infections incidence

Growth rates

NB: negative growth rates are decline rates. Values are daily changes.

Region Median 95% CrI (lower) 95% CrI (upper)
East of England -0.07 -0.08 -0.06
London -0.18 -0.20 -0.16
Midlands -0.08 -0.08 -0.07
North East and Yorkshire -0.05 -0.05 -0.04
North West -0.06 -0.07 -0.06
South East -0.07 -0.08 -0.06
South West -0.06 -0.07 -0.05

Halving times

Halving times in days, if a region shows growth than value will be Inf.

Region Median 95% CrI (lower) 95% CrI (upper)
East of England 9.53 8.49 10.80
London 3.54 3.17 3.95
Midlands 8.64 7.84 9.54
North East and Yorkshire 14.39 12.53 16.74
North West 10.58 9.46 11.92
South East 9.75 8.63 10.98
South West 12.08 10.00 14.75

Change in deaths incidence

Growth rates

NB: negative growth rates are decline rates. Values are daily changes.

Region Median 95% CrI (lower) 95% CrI (upper)
East of England -0.05 -0.06 -0.05
London -0.09 -0.09 -0.09
Midlands -0.06 -0.06 -0.05
North East and Yorkshire -0.04 -0.04 -0.03
North West -0.05 -0.05 -0.04
South East -0.05 -0.06 -0.05
South West -0.05 -0.05 -0.04

Halving times

Halving times in days, if a region shows growth than value will be Inf.

Region Median 95% CrI (lower) 95% CrI (upper)
East of England 12.45 11.32 13.92
London 7.20 7.06 7.39
Midlands 11.43 10.65 12.38
North East and Yorkshire 19.17 16.76 22.37
North West 14.14 12.81 15.76
South East 12.48 11.31 13.83
South West 14.74 12.50 17.89

Infections and deaths

Blue line is date of lockdown (23 Mar), the red line is the date of results (10 May).

Infection incidence

By region

By age

Cumulative infections

By region

By age